Gain Theory, a global marketing effectiveness consultancy, is included in Forrester’s report “Three Requirements Every CPG Marketer Needs to Select a Marketing Measurement Vendor” released May 6, 2020.
Forrester’s report details how CPG marketer’s measurement needs differ from those of marketers in industries with greater access to consumer data and outlines the CPG-specific capabilities needed from partners to optimize marketing budgets.
The Forrester report states that B2C marketers in the CPG industry have minimal access to customer-level data. Due to using third-party distributors, like grocers, and indirect relationships with customers the availability of customer-level purchase data is severely limited.
Therefore, CPG marketers require unique marketing measurement approaches and rely upon robust assistance with data and analytics to understand the impact and results of their marketing campaigns.
Gain Theory is cited as a vendor that has the specialized capabilities and experience that CPG marketers need. Specifically, the report notes:
- Gain Theory’s cloud-based decision-making platform Gain Theory Interactive “collates vast amounts of performance data across brands and geographies, enabling fast marketing optimizations”.
- Various data assets Gain Theory can access, including, its own proprietary US tracker. “These data assets have information including but not limited to customer behavior, brand insights, and marketing investment data, which can be analyzed together to better understand marketing efficacy.”
Gain Theory has also been named a Strong Performer in The Forrester Wave™: Marketing Measurement and Optimization Solutions, Q1 2020 and is proud to be on Forrester’s shortlist for CPG marketers in this 2020 report.
The decline in creative effectiveness through the 2010s has been much discussed, with plenty of potential reasons cited. Marketers have been accused of a short-termist myopia, of being too rational, left-brained, and of focusing on awards and not business impacts. As well as this, it has been argued that measurement is to blame: by concentrating on data and not on gut, have marketers have lost the essence of what constitutes great advertising?
As part of Thinkbox’s Demand Generation event in November 2019 I put forward a case that measurement as a practice is not to blame, but that bad measurement practice is, in that it causes marketers to make misguided decisions.
To put measurement back on the right track requires a rule book that all of the industry can follow. This rule book needs to be simple, based on experience, and well-practiced. Therefore, the nine golden rules that follow are nothing new. You may think that they’re too damn obvious. But how many of us can realistically say we follow all of them, all the time?
The rules split into A) Data, B) Methodologies, and C) Further Considerations. Please read them carefully and encourage your teams to do the same. Only by following them all, as laid out here, can we return to proper marketing measurement.
This is a preview of a WARC article published in January 2020. You can read the full article here (available to WARC subscribers only)
Alternatively read our blog from Thinkbox’s Demand Generation event including a link to video summarising the research here
You can also download the 9 Golden Rules booklet here
Businesses tend to perform better in times of stability and continuity, when the future is simpler to predict. But we now live in a world of perpetual uncertainty, from trade wars to Brexit the future is becoming more difficult to anticipate. So how exactly do businesses achieve sustainable, meaningful growth in these uncertain times?
To mark our 2019 global partnership with EffWorks – the global initiative that champions accountability – Jon Webb, Managing Partner explains what businesses should be doing to ensure that uncertainty becomes a growth opportunity.
Click here to read it.
Why should I read this?
- Understand what growth means in context of the times we live in today.
- The opportunities that exist in the same spaces as challenges.
- How to plan for sustained growth using a ‘future > back’ approach.
If Marketing is the engine of business growth, the boiler room of decision making requires a ‘best-in-class’ effectiveness strategy.
WHY READ THIS?
- Having the right Marketing Effectiveness Strategy will help create the right culture, make the right decisions, avoid wastage and maximise impact.
- Focus on what really matters and create strategies that will ensure Marketing Effectiveness becomes an established part of how you do business.
- Lead change within the organization by creating the political and emotional fuel required for the journey; adopting a crawl, walk, run approach; and having the right ecosystem in place.
Many organizations struggle with Marketing Effectiveness. Indeed, many are still trying to figure out which adverts are working; and how marketing in a broader sense, beyond advertising, is helping generate business growth.
This paper has been created by Gain Theory and commissioned by EffWorks, an initiative that champions accountability in marketing and promotes a culture of Marketing Effectiveness from C-Suite, all the way down through organizations.
The purpose of this paper is to generate momentum and direction around Marketing Effectiveness Strategy – to help marketing and insight executives maximise the impact of marketing.
In creating this paper, 40 senior marketing and insight executives from a cross section of leading brands were interviewed, representing a UK advertising spend of more than £7bn.
TO GET THE PAPER CLICK HERE
Watch Jon Webb, Managing Partner at Gain Theory talk about why this matter really matters in today’s marketing world.
Episode 1: Taking Effectiveness Strategy to the Next Level
Episode 2: How should a CMO think about Marketing Effectiveness?
Episode 3: How can we drive business growth through Marketing Effectiveness?
Episode 4: What is the Journey to best-in-class Marketing Effectiveness?
Episode 5: How to structure a Marketing Effectiveness programme
When it comes to gaming and gambling, user behaviours and player loyalty can be tricky to pin-down.
So in a business defined by keeping the players playing, it’s important to understand how advertising affects different users, new and returning, as well as what effect it has on the product mix in general.
Gain Theory brings its experience in working with a range of gambling and gaming brands to explore player behaviour and define what’s important when advertising to users.
In this report we answer:
- What makes a customer continue or stop playing?
- What increases loyalty and engagement?
- How should you balance investment between new and existing customers?
- How can we get existing customers to trial other products and games?
To download the article, click the Free Download button.
Analysis conducted by Gain Theory
Why this is important?
In the last decade, marketing has changed beyond all comprehension.
The rise of digital, big data, programmatic, addressable et al have given marketers a multitude of opportunities, the number of which continues to dramatically grow.
Like an all you can eat buffet, the choice can be both exciting and overwhelming; it’s very easy to make rash, regrettable decisions.
There has been a similar rise in marketing analytics techniques. It has never been easier to see how well your marketing investment is performing, in clicks, likes, sentiment, web visits, phone calls, applications, sales, profit. But too many of these techniques focus on easily measurable metrics, which often give an alarmingly short-term view.
To counter this, Gain Theory has run a study which looks at the long-term impact of marketing, across a range 7 key categories and 29 brands. The aim is two-fold: to show how marketing impacts business revenue and profit in the long term; and to show how marketers can make the right decisions to drive long-term growth.
We believe this is key to the future success of the advertising industry. If we continue to focus on short term metrics, we miss the full picture.
For instance, across the brands Gain Theory analysed, digital attribution was shown to measure only 18% of the full long-term impact of marketing on sales. Econometric techniques bridge the gap, but only get us 42% of the way there.
Only by looking at marketing through a long-term lens can we truly understand the full impact.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
The aim of Gain Theory’s Long Term analysis is to measure and understand the Long-Term Multiplier (LTM) to short term impact. To understand how it works, let’s run through an example, and say that a brand ran a £5m TV campaign. Econometric analysis could measure its short-term impact at (for example) £10m in value sales, thus giving a short-term ROI of £2 (£10m value sales divided by £5m spend). The LTM tells us how much this impact grows in the long term. If we measured a LTM of 3x, then this would be because the long-term impact of the campaign was £30m. Please note, this is total so the £30m includes the initial £10m short term impact. The overall long-term ROI is £6 (short-term ROI of £2 multiplier by 3).
The LTM is measured by analysing the base – i.e. the level of sales return in the long-term if a brand ran no marketing, which can be seen as a measure of a combination of mental and physical availability, or brand strength. Standard econometric practise is to use a flat base, which does not move over time. However, one of marketing’s functions is to change tastes and preferences in the long term. So if we allow the base to change in the long term, we can reflect these long term movements in tastes and preferences. And if we can understand how marketing impacts the base then we can show how many long-term sales were driven by marketing, giving us the long-term multiplier.
Gain Theory has run this analysis across 29 brands to understand the trends at a macro level. How do advertisers drive long-term sales? What media channels have the biggest impact on long-term sales, and thus the highest LTM? How can marketers use this information to their benefit, to drive long-term business health?
1. TV has the greatest long term multiplier of all media channels
Across all categories, TV has an average LTM of 2.35. The only other channel with an LTM over 2 is Out of Home:
This persists across categories:
TV also has the highest efficacy, with its 25% point (e.g. the point at which 25% of LTMs are higher, and 75% are lower) being higher than all other media at 3.87; the next highest is VOD at 3.52.
2. Activation and direct response media can drive stunning ST ROIs but lack LT impact; whereas brand media have the best LTMs
As seen above, the LTMs for Search, Display, and Radio are at the lower end of the spectrum, whereas TV, VOD, Print, and OOH are in the top 4 across categories.
There is clearly important for CMOs and CFOs alike. If certain media are driving high short-term returns but have a limited long term impact, and if we’re only measuring the short-term impact, we are likely to be missing out on large potential long term revenue drivers, potentially causing harm to the business.
3. What drives LTM?
The strongest drivers of LTM are levels of brand media investment, and the number of bursts of activity. Where we have seen brands invest in media such as TV, VOD, Print, and OOH, at a level which is over and above their competitive set, we have seen higher LTMs than where investment has been under that seen in the competitive set.
Additionally, there are benefits to persisting with a campaign. The LTM from running three bursts is double that of a campaign which only has one burst of activity.
4. Which factors indicate long term effect? What tools can marketers use to understand if their marketing is having an impact in the long term?
The greatest indicator of long term effect from media is the level of base sales, as Gain Theory has modelled here. However, this can take time to observe as base shifts are measured in months and years, and can often require advanced statistical techniques.
In lieu of a base modelling approach, there are three key ways in which long term effect becomes apparent and can be observed:
- Impact on brand equity metrics
- Impact on price elasticity
- Impact on activation metrics
4.1 Brand Metrics
Brand metrics often give a guide to long term brand strength. While the choice of brand metrics can be overwhelming, with many advertisers running surveys with hundreds of questions, it is normally a small range of metrics which provide this guide. In 65% of cases, consideration forms the closest link to base sales, where growth in consideration causes growth in the base. The level of impact form consideration differs from industry to industry and brand to brand, but a guide is that a 1%pt increase in consideration can be expected to drive a 0.5 – 2% increase in base sales.
A slightly more advanced method is to observe a small basket of metrics, generally comprising awareness, consideration, and those brand metrics which have a close link to base sales. These will differ by brand and industry, but commonly used brand metrics include value for money, trust, and service. Tracking a basket can give a business a ‘campfire’ number – easy to track and observe whilst indicating long term success. Indeed, for a number of large advertisers, while growth in brand metrics is always welcomed, a lot of advertising spend is aimed at maintaining the brand, the base sales, and ultimately the business. (see next section).
4.2 Price elasticity
Another way in which long term health can be measured is by analysing price elasticity over time. The theory is that consumers will overlook price differences for a brand which they believe is higher quality, or a brand in which they have more trust – e.g. Boots own-brand Ibuprofen vs Nurofen; the products are the same, the price points are vastly different.
This has been shown in a number of Gain Theory case studies. In one FMCG case study, the price elasticity went from -1 (e.g. a 10% rise in price causes a 10% drop in units sold) to -0.4 (a 10% rise in price causes a 4% drop in units sold). This happened over a three year time period in which the brand went from minimal brand advertising to a relatively consistent presence on TV & VOD.
It takes a significant amount of spend to shift price sensitivity, and this level of spend will depend on the category, the brand, the competition levels, and the quality of product. As a rule of thumb, share of voice is the best metric to consider – for every 10%pt of share of voice increased, we can expect a between 5%pt -20%pt reduction in price elasticity. However, there are diminishing returns to scale – if SOV is already at 50% there is a minimal impact of increasing to 55%, for example
5. If brand investment stops, things can go quickly wrong
It is rare, but not impossible, for brands to stop investing in brand media to save money. Below are three cases where this has happened and the warning signs advertisers can take from each case.
5.1 A retail bank stopped TV advertising
A retail bank had been advertising on TV & VOD consistently for two and a half years. In March 2013, they stopped and went dark for two years. There was an immediate short term impact as sales caused by TV dropped. But the long-term base impact was stark. Over two years their base dropped from 20,000 quotes a month to 11,000.
They were still able to generate quotes using other channels – but their efficiency reduced: e.g. generic paid search cost per quote increased by 20%, reflecting findings from section 4.3.
5.2 A financial services brand stopped TV advertising, when they returned it took 3 years to rebuild their base
A different financial services brand had been advertising on TV & VOD consistently, then stopped. They started advertising again after 2 years off air. Short term results were good: they saw the same cost per application and the same % uplift from TV. But their base had halved. It took 3 years to rebuild their base to pre-dark levels, using a continuous level of brand media to do so.
5.3 A travel brand went off air to protect profit; this had deleterious effects in the long term
A US-based travel brand took $3.4m out of their TV budget to save money. They lost 41,200 transactions in the short term, equivalent to $3m of profit. So the net impact was $0.4m profit added to the bottom line.
However, this brand did not account for the long-term impact. Taking base deterioration into account, the total long term transaction loss was 81,600, equating to a $4.5m loss in profit. The net loss from going off TV was -$1.1m.
As has been shown above, brand advertising can have a significant long-term impact, which is often missed by short-termism in marketing measurement. There are ways to understand the long-term impact, either by modelling, or by analysing brand metrics, price sensitivity, or activation media.
When undertaking this analysis, it can be shown that the media channels which drive long-term impact are those which have the time and space to tell a story and to embed themselves in consumer minds. Gain Theory’s analysis shows that, due to these features, TV is likely to be the best channel to drive long-term impact and, alongside it, business success.
In this world of multiple metrics and big data it can be easy to retreat into short-termism and easy to measure metrics. We encourage all advertisers to take a longer view to represent the full impact of marketing – otherwise we are doing the whole industry a disservice.
As the media landscape continuously evolves, what was simple is now complex. Marketers are now faced with even more challenges, from allocating investments across multiple channels to gaining positive return on investment. So how can marketers bring on board the best-in-class partners for marketing analytics and consultancy, to help their organization meet those challenges? What questions should you provide, and what questions should you ask so potential partners can put forward the best solution?
To set sourcing and procurement professionals up for success, Gain Theory has compiled a Download document that includes:
- The 9 Do’s of managing the sourcing and procurement process for marketing analytics and consultancy. Some helpful tips to help you get best responses from vendors
- Best-in-class RFP questions that can be applied to multiple types of solutions including market mix modelling, multi-touch attribution and unified measurement
Gain Theory partnered with ProcureCon Marketing at the ProcureCon Marketing conference in New Orleans, where Jon Webb, Managing Partner at Gain Theory, spoke on stage about the latest tools available to help marketers understand marketing investment allocation across multiple channels, as well as how they impact ROI both tactically and strategically.
To get your ‘Guide to Procuring Marketing Analytics and Consultancy,’ download the PDF at the top right side.
Finding a balance between business objectives and financial return has become harder to justify for many marketers. With the plethora of marketing channels available today, an increasing pain point is identifying which media work to drive KPI and their role in short and long term business impact.
Gain Theory has produced a research study for ThinkBox as part of the Profit Ability report, which addresses the problem of how to effectively measure the long-term impact of media investment. This is the first study of its kind that discusses the issues involved, moving beyond the often-misleading ROI ratios, and showing the genuine difference that advertising makes.
In an interview with The Times Gain Theory Partner and senior practitioner, Matthew Chappell who led of the research said “Advertising spend has been a hot debate in marketing for some time. There is more data floating around than ever before. However, there tends to be a focus on short-term metrics, which is why this study is so important.
“If you publish a video, say, on a social-media channel, you see that it gets a certain number of likes and shares within the first half hour. But how do you know that it is building long-term success? It is very easy for marketing departments to see what’s driving short-term success, and put all their money in and focus on that. In doing so, though, you run the risk of losing sight of what is propping up the long-term business value.”
Mr Chappell says there is a long-term multiplier effect that many chief executives may not know about. “The findings show that there is often a multiplier to short-term impact,” he says. “For example, if the multiplier is two and you generate a million sales within the first three months of a campaign, then you are likely to make two million in three years.
“Bearing that in mind, we looked at the whole plethora of channels and the results showed TV tends to come out as the strongest medium.
“The numbers we have created are robust, and should provide confidence to chief executives and chief financial officers, and show TV advertising works best in the long and short term. Hopefully this study will add to and shift the conversation away from those short-term, easily measured metrics.”
Watch Matthew discussing the Long Term study:
Watch the full Profit Ability launch event session where Matthew presents the study:
To download the study, please click on the download button on the top right.
Gain Theory has a global partnership in place with EffWorks an initiative led by the IPA that champions marketing effectiveness measurement, culture & best practice.
Client side brands involved include Diageo, Jaguar Land Rover, Telfonica, Mondelez, Lego, Kraft Heinz, Unilever, Samsung + many more; alongside industry associations such as 4A’s, IAB and CAA ; and media giants such as Google and facebook.
As an unbiased direct-to-client consultancy that champions marketing effectiveness, Gain Theory’s involvement with EffWorks is to drive high value content and conversations that shape thinking around client challenges, measurement strategies and actionable insights that have a positive impact on the bottom line.
In line with this, Gain Theory has led the creation of a green paper entitled Marketing Measurement in the Digital Era. The paper was created in collaboration with Facebook, Google, Thinkbox, Royal Mail, Mondelez and folded in interviews with Dixons, Samsung, Direct Line and many more client side brands.
The green paper intends to provoke debate and act as the foundation to further research and best practice in 2018.
- Marketing – definitions
- Metrics that Matter
- Measurement Strategies: what good looks like
- The Future
- 6 Step Marketing Effectiveness Plan
With so many different marketing channels out there today, it’s difficult to identify what drives sales.
In this paper, we present a new solution to an age-old problem – how to effectively measure the long-term effects of advertising.
Some people view this as being impossible, others do it inaccurately but we’ve figured out how to get it right. Here we discuss the issues involved, dismantle existing systems and present our own solution.
Inside this paper we cover:
- Why is this important to me?
- We need a floating base
- What are the existing measurement methods and why don’t they work over long periods?
- What attempts have been made to tackle this?
- What is the solution?
To download the article, click the link on the right.